Strategy development is the supreme discipline in business. It requires equal parts foresight, courage, and the seemingly paradoxical ability to anticipate the unpredictable. Mastering an understanding of strategy from the ground up is extremely challenging—so to approach this topic, it’s worth taking a look at it “from the opposite perspective.” In our “Playbook Enterprise,” we asked ourselves: What would we have to do to ensure that strategy development fails across the board? And what can we learn from that?
1. Decide on a vision for the future
It’s tempting to commit too early to a seemingly logical vision of the future. A classic example: “Because our market is so large, our business model will always be successful.” Such assumptions sound reassuring—and that’s exactly why alarm bells should go off immediately when faced with such apparent certainties. Reality shows that markets change faster than we’d like.
Instead: Critically question every assumption. Ask yourselves what might happen if the market shrinks, technology changes, or a new competitor emerges. Scenario analyses are your best friend here.
2. Formulate trivial platitudes
“Artificial intelligence will affect all business models.” At first glance, statements like this seem significant—but in substance, they’re often little more than platitudes. They’re virtually impossible to refute, and that’s precisely why their informative value is close to zero.
Instead: Be specific: How exactly does this trend affect us? What do we need to do to turn it into a competitive advantage?
3. Adopt a grassroots democratic approach
Strategy requires clear decisions—and those are rarely equally comfortable for everyone. Anyone who tries to find strategic directions that don’t hurt anyone risks mediocrity. Here’s an example: “We’ll keep our core business as it is because it’s safe for everyone.”
Instead: Strategy means setting priorities—and, if necessary, letting go of things that are no longer viable for the future. Not everyone will like that. Nor does it have to, because strategy isn’t a vote.
4. Think linearly
People tend to think in linear terms—and the same goes for companies. Growth of X percent per year? It sounds logical—but it’s often naive. Markets frequently evolve exponentially, cyclically, or unpredictably. If any further proof were needed, the last five years have provided it in spades.
Instead: Good strategists think in terms of scenarios that also take extreme developments into account. What happens if a market suddenly doubles—or halves?
5. Engage in navel-gazing
Strategy doesn’t end at the boundaries of your own company, market, or country. Global developments such as geopolitical tensions, environmental crises, or technological disruptions can have a massive impact on your business. For example, if China were to take over Taiwan, a major source of semiconductors would be cut off overnight. Anyone who ignores such scenarios is asking for trouble.
Instead: Involve external experts and futurists to gain as broad a perspective as possible, and always consider the company within its broader context. Think globally, act strategically.
6. Categorically rule out unlikely scenarios
Strategies often fail because seemingly unlikely scenarios are ruled out. Think of Steve Ballmer, the former Microsoft CEO, who didn’t believe the iPhone would be a success. Or Barnes & Noble, which underestimated Amazon. Both failed to think long-term—and paid a heavy price for it.
Instead: Try some thought experiments. What if your industry were to undergo a complete transformation? What disruptive ideas could you come up with yourself before others do?
7. Place bets with ease
“Our demand will increase by X percent over the next few years.” That sounds nice—but it’s often just wishful thinking. Forecasts based on past patterns ignore the uncertainties of the future.
Instead: Keep challenging those rosy forecasts—you can even turn it into a contest: What could happen to prevent the forecast from coming true?
8. Say “Yes” to Everything
A common problem in strategy development: People try to do everything at once. They lose focus, and resources are wasted. It’s even worse when it’s not clear what the company will no longer do in the future.
Instead: Say “no” more often. Ask: Where are we wasting time and money? Which projects no longer add value? A good strategy is just as much about saying “no” as it is about saying “yes.”
What's next?
Of course, this list of no-gos could be expanded indefinitely. But what’s important to us is this: Good strategic work always questions itself and must not become an end in itself. It’s uncomfortable, sometimes exhausting, and requires clear decisions. It’s better to ask uncomfortable questions now than to face the consequences of our own complacency later.
