Hello from Hamburg,
We are experiencing a couple of crises at the same time, giving us cause to relegate plans to the dustbin of a bygone era. War in Europe, which, in addition to the inconceivable human casualties, is shaking up the global economy, which is already in a state of upheaval. The noticeable climate change that is causing droughts and famines in addition to extreme weather phenomena. Flows of refugees from south to north that threaten to become permanent. Scenarios of gas taps being turned off and the consequences of a cyber war that do credit to Marc Elsberg's Black Out. Polarization between the USA and China, between the libertarian and autocratic world - as well as within democratic social orders. Inflation and price rises that spill over into everyday life and put social cohesion to the test. A pandemic that seems almost harmless in comparison, even though it brought the world to a standstill for a while. Even a nuclear war in Europe no longer seems unthinkable. They are within our grasp, the apocalyptic scenarios opulently painted in science fiction films, and they come together in a moment of crisis in our present. All of these phenomena have appeared sporadically in expert dossiers, but not in corporate planning.
Against the new reality, planning seems like meaningless exercises from a bygone era. For example, the annual rituals for drawing up the budget for the following year, which regularly paralyze parts of the company. A huge effort for the later realization that the market and customers are developing differently than assumed. As a result, planning is constantly adjusted - a form of occupational therapy for the production of fictitious inaccuracies. Even everyday plans, such as a trip to Aunt Erna's birthday party or a weekend with friends, were subject to a proviso that everyone shrugged and accepted: "If the corona figures allow it...".
Now, this suspension of planning could cause anxiety, but in fact it also has a liberating effect. Because now we are dealing with the really important questions that we have to face in Germany, which is spoiled by prosperity and security.
It's no longer about how best to organize family planning so that you can take a trip around the world during the cleverly sequenced parental leave "while the children are still small". (This was overheard two years ago during a conversation at a neighboring table). It's about the question of whether we want to do something to alleviate the suffering of war refugees. It's about difficult trade-offs: Can we continue to invest in the Baltics or are the Baltics Russia's next target? Do we press ahead with company acquisitions in China or do we stop them in the face of increasing repression and restrictions imposed by the local authorities in China? How do we set up reliable supply chains? How does our company survive dramatically rising energy costs? How do I maintain team cohesion in times of remote working?
The new short-term nature can have a liberating effect. Having a calendar that is packed down to the last hour for weeks and months seems absurd and restrictive to me due to the experience of the coronavirus shutdown. Seeing a budget plan as a rough guide and knowing that it has to be constantly adjusted anyway frees a company from paralysis caused by excessive analysis.
I remember a formative time as a young diplomat in the then crisis-ridden country of Colombia. When I arrived at the embassy in the morning, it was completely unclear what would happen during the day: an attack by the drug mafia in the center of Bogotá? A bomb threat against the embassy? A new kidnapping case of a German national? Another terrible human rights violation today in a confrontation between guerrillas and paramilitaries in the coastal region of Urabá? Every day had an agenda. But it was constantly being rewritten during the course of the day. My time in Colombia demanded of me personally an ability to adapt that was not difficult for me as a Cologne boy, and which became my second skin.
"The third decade of our century has been so average so far," someone tweeted on social media the other day. That's true. But we need disruptions from outside so that we can once again feel that uncertainty is the only thing that is certain. And that there can be liberation in it.
Best regards
Markus Baumanns
