Hello from Hamburg,
I was very pleased with the response to my first newsletter. It all boils down to one question: How relevant are corporate strategies in times of crisis and upheaval?
The question does indeed arise: How on earth is a company supposed to develop a strategic vision for the year 2027 or 2032 today? No one knows what will happen by then. And we’re already struggling with the foreseeable risks that have materialized: the climate crisis, Russia’s war against Ukraine, migration, famines, energy shortages, disrupted supply chains, and inflation—experts predicted all of this, but no one listened to them. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” as an inevitable phenomenon stemming from the logic of international interdependence. Nevertheless, according to Taleb, we should not fall into the misconception that we could ever return to normality as we once knew it. Rather, the point is to think in entirely new ways. We should not mistake the extreme case for an exception, but use it as a starting point.
So how can we provide strategic guidance at a time when normality is becoming the exception? Scenario planning, which is often touted, is of no help. That’s because it’s based on known possibilities and risks.
I also associate a personal experience with the answer to this question. As a student of history—a field that seemed to offer little in the way of a future—I applied in vain to a student financial aid organization. The question that tripped me up was: “And where do you see yourself in five to ten years?” With a sparkle in my eyes, I spoke of my burning curiosity and my earnest desire to better understand social dynamics. That led to a crash landing in the application process. Unlike my fellow applicants, I couldn’t—and didn’t want to—eloquently explain that I was aiming for an academic career, a teaching position, or a career in public service, and that I wanted to become at least the German Chancellor—which, as is well known, is possible with a degree in history. Today, I select scholarship recipients myself—and ask them, “What drives you?” and “What has made you proud?” Because I’ve learned that such conversations reveal a personality whom you can trust to master the unknown, even when the next step after that isn’t clear.
“What drives us?” “What defines us?” Anyone seeking guidance in uncertain times should first look within. It’s about reaffirming what lies at the core of a person or a business—something that must be reinterpreted time and again, regardless of changing circumstances. It’s no coincidence that the search for purpose—the meaning and purpose of a company—is booming. But that alone isn’t enough, because ultimately, employees want to know where the company is headed. “Forget goals! Develop a winning narrative that triggers emotions!” neuroscientists at Stanford Business School told me four weeks ago. A short story that conveys in a few memorable words what we want to achieve. This brings to mind Satya Nadella in 2014. The then-newly appointed CEO of Microsoft evoked the company’s proud tradition in just a few emotional sentences. He then presented his strategy in four words—“mobile first, cloud first”—which he used to propel the company forward again after a ten-year period of stagnation.
Take stock of yourself and then summarize your plan for the future in four simple words—that’s one way to do it. Such a strategy—which, of course, must be adapted to new market conditions over time—works like a compass pointing the way to the future. People like Nadella and Taleb encourage us to use crises to tackle long-overdue changes and to move forward with a clear mind, even if we stumble along the way. Never waste a good crisis!
Best regards
Markus Baumanns
