Hello from Hamburg,
Is the train coming? When will it arrive? In what order will the cars be arranged?
Is the on-board restaurant open, or should I just grab a coffee right away? Every train traveler is familiar with this uncertainty when dealing with the struggling giant of the mobility transition. The most recent and longest strike in rail history eventually went too far even for the strikers themselves, and they called it off early.
It’s interesting to note that the overwhelming majority of rail passengers no longer get upset about delays, train cancellations, or broken onboard snack bars. That frustration has given way to fatalism, calm acceptance, and (gallows) humor. A chuckle instead of an outburst when self-aware train attendants make announcements that have achieved cult status: “Well, we’ll reach our destination this time, too. The only question is when.” Or: “We’re stopped at a red signal because the section ahead of us is occupied by our priority train. Ahead of that is the priority train of our priority train. As you can see, the rail system is one with many advantages.” Or: “Our journey is delayed because security didn’t recognize our train engineer and took him away.” Recently, on a delayed ICE train from Frankfurt Airport—overcrowded due to other trains being canceled—people from all walks of life made room for one another, helped move suitcases standing in the aisle, struck up conversations, and showed consideration for one another.
A shared sense of destiny and composure instead of jostling and outbursts of anger. United by mutual understanding, passengers and train attendants have accepted that in 2023, only 64 percent of all long-distance trains ran on time—not counting train cancellations. Construction work on the tracks, train malfunctions, signal tower failures, and last-minute staff absences have become the norm. Almost everyone is now aware that this situation cannot be resolved overnight, given that the cost of renovating tracks, bridges, tunnels, supports, and control and safety systems has now reached 90 billion euros. Added to this are disruptions caused by strikes, severe weather events, people on the tracks, and police operations—factors over which the railway has only limited control. We have come to understand that we will have to live with these conditions for the next ten to 15 years. Comparisons with the reliability of trains in Japan and Switzerland are flawed: a rail network in a (partially) closed island or mountainous country simply cannot be compared to a 34,000-kilometer-long rail network in a country in the heart of Europe with connections in all directions.
In all of this, complaining about the undeniable shortcomings of the past when it comes to infrastructure improvements doesn’t help much. Instead, we build in a time buffer. We think about which trip we really need to take. We don’t rely on announcements or schedules. We improvise and get creative when a local train is canceled, and we consider alternative modes of transportation. We expect there to be a train no matter when we head to the station—and often, due to a delay of the previous train, it arrives even earlier than expected. How we deal with these and other uncertainties is a matter of attitude and adaptability.
The only player in the daily chaos of mobility that doesn’t seem to have grasped this new normal yet is the railway itself. It still holds punctuality up as the benchmark for its operations by publishing statistics on it or issuing a schedule. Instead of clinging to an outdated dream, suggesting predictability, and thereby undermining the new sense of calm, it should do away with the timetable entirely—and enable train bookings and information via the app just a few hours before the desired departure time, at reasonable prices, with no price differentiation between early and late bookers and no requirement to book a specific train. Adjust train capacities based on the data collected. Quickly create waiting areas at stations and design them to be inviting. For those who struggle with apps, set up a service hotline without hold times that truly lives up to its name.
The state of the railroad has become a fascinating lesson in dealing with uncertainty. We experience uncertainty when things we believed to be certain fall away. So why not accept uncertainty as the norm and let ourselves be pleasantly surprised when things turn out better?
